GREY THEORY BASED VIBRATION PREDICTION FOR STEAM TURBINES

LIANG Lei1; SU Leitao2; FENG Yongxin2; JIANG Dongxiang1 1.State Key Laboratory of Control and Simulation of Power System and Generation Equipment

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GREY THEORY BASED VIBRATION PREDICTION FOR STEAM TURBINES

Thermal Power Generation Vol. 41, Issue 10, Pages: 18-20(2012)

更新时间：2025-09-28

- GREY THEORY BASED VIBRATION PREDICTION FOR STEAM TURBINES
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 清华大学电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室
  2. 广东电网公司电力科学研究院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： TK268.1
- Published：2012
- 稿件说明：
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LIANG Lei1, SU Leitao2, FENG Yongxin2, et al. GREY THEORY BASED VIBRATION PREDICTION FOR STEAM TURBINES[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2012, 41(10): 18-20.
DOI：

LIANG Lei1, SU Leitao2, FENG Yongxin2, et al. GREY THEORY BASED VIBRATION PREDICTION FOR STEAM TURBINES[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2012, 41(10): 18-20. DOI：

摘要

阐述了灰色预测方法的预测机理及其在安全预测领域的应用优势。采用该方法对某汽轮机后6h的振动幅值进行预测

并利用关联度和后验差对预测结果进行检验。结果表明

灰色预测法在汽轮机振动趋势预测中后验差小

预测精度等级为一级

可预知汽轮机振动幅值的变化趋势

以便及时采取相应措施

提高机组的运行安全性。

Abstract

The Mechanism of grey prediction method and its application advantages in safety prediction were described.This method was used to predict the vibration amplitude within the coming 6 hours for a steam turbine.Moreover

the prediction results were examined using correlation degree and posterior error.Results indicated that

this grey prediction method had small posterior error and got a grade I accuracy.We can foreknow the variation trend of vibration amplitude of the steam turbine through this method

so as to take timely countermeasures.Therefore

the operation safety of the power unit was improved.

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