Photovoltaic power generation prediction based on Krige model

ZHANG Yu; HUANG Rui; ZHANG Zhentao; ZHANG Lieping

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Photovoltaic power generation prediction based on Krige model

Thermal Power Generation Issue 3, (2017)

更新时间：2025-09-28

- Photovoltaic power generation prediction based on Krige model
- 作者机构：
  
  桂林理工大学机械与控制工程学院,广西,桂林,541004
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： TM615
- Published Online：27 March 2017，
  
  Published：2017
- 稿件说明：
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ZHANG Yu, HUANG Rui, ZHANG Zhentao, et al. Photovoltaic power generation prediction based on Krige model[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2017, (3).
DOI：

ZHANG Yu, HUANG Rui, ZHANG Zhentao, et al. Photovoltaic power generation prediction based on Krige model[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2017, (3). DOI：

摘要

受太阳辐射强度、地理纬度、气候等因素的影响，光伏发电系统输出功率波动性较大，而现有光伏发电量预测模型精度较低。本文提出基于克里格模型的光伏发电量预测，首先建立地表辐射强度模型，并分析辐射强度与光伏发电的关系，确定克里格插值方法与约束条件，然后根据原始样本计算权重系数，最后利用预测模型对未来几天进行发电量预测。实验结果表明，相对于 BP神经网络、马尔可夫链和灰色理论预测模型，克里格模型的适应性更强、准确率更高、误差更小。

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