To evaluate the accessibility of national and provincial carbon intensity reduction target for China's power industry

this research uses a non-parametric endogenous direction distance function model to measure the maximum carbon intensity reduction potential in each province during the year 2016—2019 based on the metafrontier technology

and then analyze the carbon productivity change and driving forces from three aspects(i.e.

technical efficiency change

technical progress

and technological gap change). The results show that

the nationwide 18% carbon intensity reduction target could be realized only by adjusting the fuel structure effectively and completing the optimal technology introduction among regions. Only six regions would realize its provincial target through improving technical efficiency and upgrading technology on electricity generation and carbon abatement in a short or medium term. During the study

the annual average carbon productivity of all provinces is improved to varying degrees

and the main driving force is the introduction of the optimal technology between the groups. In terms of groups

the average annual carbon production growth of high-fossil-energy group is the fastest(0.248 9)

followed by the fossil-energy-dominated group(0.157 0)

the low-fossil-energy group(0.153 8) and the medium-fossil-energy group(0.140 1).