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1. 国能锦界能源有限责任公司
2. 山西华仁通电力科技股份有限公司
Published:2026
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苏国新, 巨重阳, 杨原, et al. 融合物理先验的PID-CTNet锅炉状态协同预测[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2026, (8).
苏国新, 巨重阳, 杨原, et al. 融合物理先验的PID-CTNet锅炉状态协同预测[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2026, (8). DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202602043.
【目的】针对燃煤机组运行状态强非线性、大迟延及物理耦合显著的特点,传统建模方法难以兼顾动态精度与部署成本,本文提出一种融合物理先验的PID-CTNet(physics-informed dual-branch convolutional transformer network
PID-CTNet)协同预测模型。【方法】首先,基于燃烧学机理重构多源特征空间,从负荷指令、燃料与风烟系统、工质热力参数及关键指标历史反馈4类变量中筛选得到27维关键物理量;其次,构建卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network
CNN)-Transformer混合架构的多任务深度学习框架,前端利用时间卷积神经网络(temporal convolutional networks
TCN)捕捉局部瞬态变化并降维,后端引入Transformer自注意力机制以全局感受野处理大迟延长时序依赖;最后,通过参数共享机制实现对NO
x
、SO
2
、CO排放及主/再热蒸汽温度的同步预测。【结果】实验表明,该端到端模型实现了均方根误差为2.895、平均绝对误差为1.654、平均绝对百分比误差为0.565%、决定系数为0.957的高精度指标,工业关键参数预测误差低于3%,显著优于传统时序模型及单任务方法。消融实验进一步验证了物理先验、TCN-Transformer协同结构及多任务机制对模型精度、稳定性与复杂工况鲁棒性的提升作用。【结论】PID-CTNet模型融合物理机理与深度学习优势,兼顾预测精度与计算效率,为燃煤机组智能运行提供了轻量化解决方案。
[Objective
]
Coal-fired power units typically exhibit strong nonlinearity
long time delays
and pronounced physical couplings during operation. These characteristics make it difficult for traditional mechanismbased or purely data-driven modeling approaches to simultaneously achieve high dynamic accuracy
strong generalization capability
and low deployment cost in real industrial environments. To address these challenges
this study proposes a physics-informed dual-branch convolutional transformer network(PID-CTNet) that integrates physical priors with deep learning to achieve collaborati
ve prediction of multiple combustion-related variables. [Methods
]
First
a multi-source feature space is reconstructed based on combustion and thermodynamic mechanisms. Twenty-seven key physical variables are selected from four categories(load commands
fuel and airgas system parameters
thermodynamic properties of the working fluid
and historical feedback indicators) to form a physically meaningful input representation. Second
a multi-task deep learning framework combining convolutional neural networks(CNN) and Transformer is developed. The front-end temporal convolutional networks(TCN) extract local transient features and perform dimensionality reduction
while the back-end Transformer introduces a self-attention mechanism with a global receptive field to capture long-term dependencies and large-delay characteristics inherent in boiler dynamics. Finally
a hard parameter-sharing strategy is employed to enable simultaneous prediction of NO
x
SO
2
and CO emissions
as well as main and reheat steam temperatures
within a unified modeling framework. [Results
]
Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed end-to-end model achieves high prediction accuracy
with root mean square error of 2.895
mean absolute error of 1.654
mean absolute percentage error of 0.565%
and coefficient of determination R
2
of 0.957 on the test set. The prediction errors of all five industrial key indicators remained below 3%
significantly outperforming traditional regression and time-series models such as SVR and LSTM
as well as single-task deep learning baselines. Ablation studies further validate the effectiveness of incorporating physical priors
the complementary roles of the TCN-Transformer hybrid architecture
and the performance gains brought by the multi-task learning mechanism. These components jointly enhance model accuracy
stability
and robustness under complex operating conditions
including load fluctuations
fuel variations
and frequent operational adjustments. [Conclusion
]
The PID
-CTNet model effectively integrates physical mechanisms with deep learning
achieving a favorable balance between prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. By providing lightweight and reliable collaborative prediction of emissions and steam temperature parameters
the proposed method offers a practical and deployable solution for intelligent operation
emission optimization
and safety control of coal-fired power units. The results demonstrate that physics-informed multi-task learning is a promising direction for improving the interpretability
engineering applicability
and longterm maintainability of data-driven models in modern power plant operation and optimization.
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