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1. 沈阳化工大学机械与动力工程学院
2. 中国科学院广州能源研究所
纸质出版:2025
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郑智童, 陶海, 任松彦, 等. 基于GD-Enduse模型的广东电力行业碳中和技术路径模拟研究[J]. 热力发电, 2025,54(1):120-131.
ZHENG Zhitong, TAO Hai, REN Songyan, et al. Simulation study on carbon neutrality technology path in Guangdong power industry based on GD-Enduse model[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2025, 54(1): 120-131.
郑智童, 陶海, 任松彦, 等. 基于GD-Enduse模型的广东电力行业碳中和技术路径模拟研究[J]. 热力发电, 2025,54(1):120-131. DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202404107.
ZHENG Zhitong, TAO Hai, REN Songyan, et al. Simulation study on carbon neutrality technology path in Guangdong power industry based on GD-Enduse model[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2025, 54(1): 120-131. DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202404107.
广东电力行业的碳中和是落实总体碳中和目标的前提和重要途径。基于GD-Enduse模型,以电力系统成本最小化为总目标,刻画了3种广东电力碳中和技术路径并展开定量与定性分析。结果表明:情景CM3为最优碳中和技术路径,其可再生能源装机比例达到60.2%,发电占比达到51.9%;核电稳步发展,其发电量达到总发电量的25.0%;火电机组持续退役,保留一定装机容量的利用小时数减少,留作灵活调峰电源使用;煤电与气电(carbon capture
utilization and storage
CCUS)技术配比分别下降到24.0%和44.0%,生物质CCUS技术配比持续上升至81.8%。广东电力行业碳中和需要CCUS技术大规模介入与以风电、光伏为首的可再生能源技术迅猛发展双管齐下,以“风、光、核、储”为基础,采用火电为灵活调峰电源的电力结构,各类发电技术与负碳技术灵活调节互补短板,从而实现各类电源的协同发展。
Carbon neutrality of Guangdong power industry is the premise and important way to achieve the overall carbon neutrality goal. Based on GD-Enduse model
with the overall goal of minimizing the cost of power system
this paper describes three carbon neutral technology paths of Guangdong power and carries out quantitative and qualitative analysis. The results show that scenario CM3 is the optimal carbon neutral technology path
and its installed capacity of renewable energy will reach 60.2% and power generation will account for 51.9%. Nuclear power will grow steadily
generating 25.0% of its electricity. The continuous decommissioning of thermal power units will reduce the number of hours of utilization of retained installed capacity and be reserved for flexible peak-trimming power supply. The carbon capture
utilization and storage(CCUS) ratio of coal and gas power will decrease to 24.0% and 44.0% respectively
while the CCUS ratio of biomass will continue to rise to 81.8%. Therefore
carbon neutrality in Guangdong's power industry requires the large-scale intervention of CCUS technology and the rapid development of renewable energy technologies led by wind power and photovoltaic.Based on “wind
light
nuclear and storage”
employing the power structure that thermal power is used as flexible peaking power supply
and various power generation technologies and negative carbon technologies flexibly adjust complementary shortboards
can achieve the coordinated development of various types of power supplies.
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